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Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield has set a deadline. His team is going to try to comply.

Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated reported earlier this week that the Bucs are ready to "dive in" to negotiations with Mayfield, whose three-year, $100 million deal expires after the 2026 season.

He's technically due to make $27.5 million this year, with available incentives. Past tinkering with his cash flow has pushed his total compensation for 2026 to $40 million.

The most important figure is the cap number: $39.975 million. By rule, that pushes his 2027 franchise tag to at least $47.97 million, a 20-percent increase over the cap charge in the last year of the contract.

The challenge continues to be pegging the right value, given that the range for veteran starting quarterbacks spans low in the $20 millions to the mid-$60 millions. The real question may be whether Mayfield's new-money APY begins with a "4" or a "5".

The market is the market. But some teams (like the Dolphins in 2024) have done market-level deals they quickly came to regret.

Whatever happens, bet on this — Mayfield will be willing to bet on himself, if necessary. During the latest season of Quarterback on Netflix, Mayfield revisits his decision to withdraw from Texas Tech after Kliff Kingsbury made Davis Webb the starter and enroll at Oklahoma without a spot on the football team.

Mayfield has already made the ultimate roll of the dice on himself. And look at how it turned out — Heisman Trophy winner, No. 1 overall pick, and career earnings (through 2026) of more than $130 million.

Mayfield's history makes it clear that he won't think twice about passing on a good-not-great offer from the Bucs and take his chances on something better if he becomes a free agent in March.